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Odds for NASCAR race at New Hampshire: Expert picks & favorites to win Sunday’s race


Picking a winner based on the odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) is a challenge because the “Magic Mile” is such a unique track.

The 1.058-mile oval in Loudon, N.H., is so flat with 2- to 7-degree variable banking in the corners that it basically drives like a short track and eats up tires. The relatively slow nature of the track is why Sunday’s race is only 301 laps and 318.46 miles.

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The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is the one and only NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire this season, as the track now hosts one Cup race per year after getting two per year from 1997-2017. So, naturally, the driver who has won the last to Cup races at New Hampshire is the favorite for Sunday’s event.

Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.

NASCAR odds to win at New Hampshire

Kevin Harvick is a relatively easy choice as the favorite for Sunday’s race. He has won the last two Cup races at New Hampshire and leads all active drivers with four career victories at the track. He also happens to be the NASCAR Cup Series points leader after 19 races in 2020 with four wins on the season.

Denny Hamlin is just behind Harvick with three career victories at New Hampshire and is coming off his series-best fifth win of the 2020 season. That’s why he is a close second behind Harvick on the odds board.

Below are the complete odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR race at New Hampshire, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

DriverOdds to win New Hampshire race
Kevin Harvick+420
Denny Hamlin+480
Kyle Busch+800
Martin Truex Jr.+900
Ryan Blaney+900
Brad Keselowski+1000
Chase Elliott+1000
Joey Logano+1400
Aric Almirola+2400
Alex Bowman+3100
Kurt Busch+3100
Christopher Bell+3500
Erik Jones+3500
Jimmie Johnson+3500
Matt Kenseth+4700
William Byron+4700
Clint Bowyer+5500
Cole Custer+5500
Tyler Reddick+5500
Matt DiBenedetto+7500
Austin Dillon+8500
Ryan Newman+8500
Brennan Poole+20000
Bubba Wallace+20000
Chris Buescher+20000
Corey LaJoie+20000
Daniel Suarez+20000
JJ Yeley+20000
Joey Gase+20000
John Hunter Nemechek+20000
Michael McDowell+20000
Quin Houff+20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+20000
Ryan Preece+20000
Timmy Hill+20000
Ty Dillon+20000

Below are the top 10 driver ratings at New Hampshire among active racers:

  1. Denny Hamlin, 103.6
  2. Kyle Busch, 102.4
  3. Jimmie Johnson, 99.1
  4. Kevin Harvick, 98.5
  5. Brad Keselowski, 98.4
  6. Martin Truex Jr., 95.0
  7. Matt Kenseth, 92.7
  8. Chase Elliott, 90.7
  9. Kurt Busch, 89.9
  10. Ryan Newman, 88.2

Hamlin will start Sunday’s race in second place and on the front row with pole-sitter Aric Almirola. That’s good news for both, as the front row has produced 18.75 percent of Cup Series winners at New Hampshire. The first starting position is the most proficient in the field, producing more winners (six) than any other starting position at the track.

Below is the breakdown of wins by starting position in the history of Cup racing (48 total races) at New Hampshire.

Starting positionWinning %Wins
1st12.5 percent6
Front row18.75 percent9
Top 527.08 percent13
Top 1052.08 percent25
Outside top 2018.75 percent9

The top 10 starters for Sunday’s race at New Hampshire (as determined by a random draw of the top 12 teams by owner points) are as follows:

  1. Aric Almirola
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Chase Elliott
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Clint Bowyer
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Alex Bowman
  9. Joey Logano
  10. Kurt Busch

MORE: Complete starting lineup for New Hampshire race

NASCAR at New Hampshire expert picks

(Driver loop data stats are from 2005-present)

1. Kyle Busch

Career stats at New Hampshire:

  • Three wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
  • Average finish of 12.607 (eighth-best)
  • Average running position of 11.334 (fourth-best)
  • Driver rating of 102.4 (second-best)

He has to win this season at some point, right? It might as well come at a track where he tends to run well and where Joe Gibbs Racing has 11 wins, the most for any organization at the one-mile track. If he has the speed, we know KFB has the talent to get on the board in 2020.

2. Brad Keselowski

Career stats at New Hampshire:

  • One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; four poles
  • Average finish of 11.000 (second-best)
  • Average running position of 10.921 (third-best)
  • Driver rating of 98.4 (fifth-best)

Statistically, Keselowski is the best of the three Team Penske drivers at New Hampshire, though his lone Cup Series win at the track came back in the summer of 2014. He led 12 laps in this race last year after starting on the pole, and his team’s speed this season suggests he can finish the job in 2020.

3. Denny Hamlin

Career stats at New Hampshire:

  • Three wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
  • Average finish of 9.885 (series-best)
  • Average running position of 10.697 (series-best)
  • Driver rating of 103.6 (series-best)

This would mean an absurd sixth victory in 2020 for Hamlin, but the driver of the No. 11 JGR Toyota is just too good at New Hampshire not to include as pick to win. He led 113 laps in this race last year before barely finishing second to Harvick.